Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
