How The Unusual Season Broke the Typical Coach of the Year Mould.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.
Yet the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.
Here is how the ideal ballot could be structured.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record
Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.
The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical season!
The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.
After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.
The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.
Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.
Still